Electoral Map Daily Compass

The pundits were in total agreement going into New Hampshire that Barack Obama would walk away with a win. In the aftermath, they’re once again on the same page, but this time the pundits are in agreement that they were all wrong — or more accurately, that they were foolish to trust the pollsters, who were the real screw-ups.

This all may be true, but it seems a little ridiculous that the CW is just as clear after the election as it way beforehand. Still, there are some smart voices in the crowd. Here are a few:

Analyzing New Hampshire

Real Clear PoliticsJay Cost: “Hillary Clinton won many elements of the traditional FDR coalition…. Obama, on the other hand, had a very different electorate – one that has a bit in common with the insurgent candidacies of Gary Hart and Bill Bradley…. Clinton’s is the type of electorate that has delivered Democrats the nomination again and again. These results remind me a great deal of the electorate that delivered Mondale the nomination in 1984.”

Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal: “Sen. Hillary Clinton won working-class neighborhoods and less-affluent rural areas. Sen. Barack Obama won the college towns and the gentrified neighborhoods of more affluent communities. Put another way, Mrs. Clinton won the beer drinkers, Mr. Obama the white wine crowd. And there are more beer drinkers than wine swillers in the Democratic Party.”

Washington Post’s Harold Meyerson: “The old divisions of class, and the sometime divisions of age, are plain to see. Like Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Al Gore before her, Clinton is winning downscale and older voters, and the support of party regulars. Like Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley before him, Obama has the backing of more upscale and younger voters, and independents. Obama carried the college towns. Clinton swamped him in working-class Manchester.”

Beyond New Hampshire

Looking to Michigan, Detroit Free Press writer Justin Hyde reminds the GOP candidates that “Michigan has as many unemployed job seekers as Republicans had voters in Iowa and New Hampshire combined.”

Politico’s Jonathan Martin parses Michigan political geography and explains why Mike Huckabee could be a thorn in the side of Mitt Romney. Explaining Huckabee’s Michigan appeal, he writes, “First, the conservative Catholics, evangelicals and Dutch Reformed members.… have somebody who speaks their language about faith and the sanctity of life…. Second, Huck’s populist shtick, up now in his first Michigan TV spot, is bound to play well in a state suffering through an economic downturn with a heavy blue-collar population. Recall: Macomb County is the home of the Reagan Democrats. So Romney’s CEO polish could be appealing for some — but it could remind others that he’s a CEO’s son from Bloomfield Hills and Cranbrook.”

And in South Carolina, ABC’s Jake Tapper reports that Ed Rollins is pointing to “two groups of voters who would be amenable to Huckabee’s message: Evangelicals open to his faith and values, and disaffected former ‘Reagan Democrats’ who helped then-President Ronald Reagan win overwhelmingly in his 1984 re-election campaign.”

CBS News suggests that “Obama believes he has a chance to revolutionize Presidental politics in the south…. Obama talks about winning Mississippi, where a third of the population is black, and Georgia as well. He believes Tennessee and South Carolina could be in play as well. Former South Carolina Governor Jim Hodges is an Obama supporter.”

The New York Times ventures down to the “political testing ground” of Arkansas, a small state “where history has created an unusual blend of Southern conservatism and Western populism, and where storytelling is a cultural value.”


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