Electoral Map Daily Compass: Chesapeake Primary Edition

A lot of stuff to report, so I’ll just make one quick comment about tomorrow’s Chesapeake primary: In no way is the great 401-year-old commonwealth of Virginia anything like the suburban strip between Baltimore and Washington that is known as Maryland. A number of pollsters, pundits and demographers — most notoriously Brad Coker — have compared the cradle of presidents and generals on the southern banks of the Potomac to the state that inspired The Wire.

While I respect Coker work and almost always appreciate his demographic analysis, this is a inaccurate description of local demographics:

“As politically opposite as the two states have been over the years, they are becoming more similar demographically. Primarily because of the changes in Virginia – plus these are primary races as opposed to general election races. The numbers in the Washington Metro area of Maryland are pretty similar to those in the Northern Virginia region. Both have substantial African-American votes in their Democratic primaries (36% in Maryland/30% in Virginia). Both have rural areas (Virginia’s are still larger). Both have a lot of government employees. Both have working class whites (in Hampton Roads & Rural Virginia vs. in Baltimore Metro & Rural Maryland). Western Maryland and the Shenandoah Valley vote pretty much along the same lines. The Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland and the Northern Neck vote the same way. Both have outer suburb ‘ex-urbanites’ (Loudoun/Prince William/Stafford/Spotsylvania in VA vs. Howard/Harford/Frederick/Charles in MD).”

The Chesapeake Primary

  • Hillary hinging hopes on a Virginia victory. [Politico]
  • Will the Clinton camp dismiss the region as states that “don’t matter”? [Daily Kos]
  • Obama conceding working-class southwest Virginia? [Not Larry Sabato]
  • Plus: Richmond wants to be like Charleston. [Richmond Times-Dispatch]

Electoral Map Landscape

  • Are Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri and Virginia poised to turn blue? [Chicago Tribune]
  • Putting Michigan and Florida back on the map. [Washington Wire]

Demographics and the Democratic Race

  • The racial divide rears is head in the South. [AP]
  • The racial line is also evident in Dem powerhouse states like California and New York. [Washington Post]
  • Brownstein asks, “Whose coalition is bigger?” [National Journal]
  • Obama to target working-class white voters in Ohio and Texas [Guardian]



2 responses to “Electoral Map Daily Compass: Chesapeake Primary Edition

  1. Can we call it the DMV primary? District, Maryland, Virginia? Potomac and Chesapeake both exclude wide swathes of our electorate! People in Charlottesville and Baltimore don’t have that much in common!

  2. The Clinton campaign didn’t have a healthcare plan befor it felled and they don’t have one now. Well to be honest, if everyone is a goverment employee, then the Clinton healthcare plan will work for everyone. Unfortunately some are self employed, independent contractors or work for private employors or small business. Under the Clinton healthcare plan these people would be penalized if they don’t pay for their healthcare. This means that most of your family members and friends will have their paychecks garnished. We all know that it doesn’t stop their if it is a goverment enforcement. There will be fines and then misdemeanors which is a criminal offense defined as less serious than a felony. Why did Ms. Clinton decide on this approach? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this out. Big business, big Corporation call it what you will, they want their money back and in order for Ms. Clinton to get their support in her race to presidency she is giving victory to one side (the healthcare providers) by promising to them that she will have the poeople wages garnished if they continue to give healthcare. Thus allowing her to shout the words “UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE” This is a shady tactic and makes fools out of every american that falls for trick. The Obama healthcare plan is for the people. Poor people, middle class and rich people can rest assured that there is no tricks or penalties in the Obama healthcare plan. VOTE OBAMA!!

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