Gerry Seib on the Electoral Map

Via Capital Journal.

On McCain:

“New Jersey is another big target; it is home to lots of moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats who could gravitate to Sen. McCain.

“The giant question is California. Although most Republicans are skeptical, Sen. McCain’s strategists are convinced he has the potential to put the nation’s most populous state into play. They note that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has shown that an independent-minded Republican can prevail in the Golden State, and are counting on the McCain appeal to Hispanics, particularly if his foe is Sen. Obama, who hasn’t done as well as Sen. Clinton has with that group.”

On Obama:

“[Being an African-American candidate] would work to his disadvantage in some states, but could bring into play some Southern states with big black populations. Chief among those is Virginia; the Obama camp thinks even such Republican strongholds as Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama could be among them if there is an outsize turnout by blacks.”

On Clinton:

“The Clinton name, plus her appeal to rural and small-town whites, also makes her the more popular of the two Democrats in Arkansas, a state that has slipped away from Democrats in the past two general elections. In addition, her camp hopes, she could have a shot at Tennessee.”

Did Seib just look at the primary maps and project it onto the general?  In the primaries, Clinton did well in rural areas; Obama won the South; McCain excelled with coastal, moderate Republican.

But if we’re talking about the general election, a McCain win in California would be a coup; a Clinton win in Tennessee would mean that she’s winning by a landslide in the rest of the country; and an Obama win in Alabama would mean that the whole map has been scraped and redrawn.

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2 responses to “Gerry Seib on the Electoral Map

  1. If McCain wins CA or NJ, it wont matter – the election will have been a rout.

  2. Clinton aint winning Tennessee. Even Bill barely won there in 1996 with Ross Perot taking away Conservative votes from Dole.

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