Cillizza Posts His Latest Electoral Map Line

Washington Post‘s Chris Cillizza is releasing a new presidential electoral map line each Friday. Here is his latest list on Cillizza’s The Fix b.og, along with The Electoral Map’s own analysis. What do you think?

10. Florida (Bush, 52 percent)

  • The Fix: “Polling suggests that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the nominee, then the state is a toss up; if Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is the Democratic standard-bearer — as is more likely — then presumptive GOP nominee John McCain holds a double-digit lead in current polling.”
  • The Electoral Map: Florida is as red as the Georgia Bulldog’s jerseys.

9. New Hampshire (Kerry, 50 percent)

  • The Fix: “There’s little doubt that McCain is extremely popular in the Granite State — especially with the independent voters who comprise the most crucial voting bloc. But New Hampshire is also one of the hotbeds of anti-war sentiment in the country.”
  • The Electoral Map: Expect McCain to make a strong push for New Hampshire. He’ll make it his home base on Northeastern swings through the moderate states of Maine, Connecticut and New Jersey.

8. Michigan (Kerry, 51 percent)

  • The Fix: “John Kerry won the state by just over 150,000 votes (out of more than 4.6 million cast) in 2004, and the ongoing question of whether and how Democrats will seat the Michigan delegation provides ammunition for Republicans to argue that the other party is trying to silence the voters of the state.”
  • The Electoral Map: Didn’t Patrick Ruffini say McCain will win the Gerald Ford Republicans? Well, Ford was from Grand Rapids.

7. Minnesota (Kerry, 51 percent)

  • “The Fix still believes Pawlenty is the frontrunner to serve as McCain’s runningmate, a scenario that if it comes to pass will make the Republican ticket quite competitive in Minnesota.”
  • The Electoral Map: I love how Republicans are making a play for the Gopher State by hosting their convention there, but Minnesota’s DNA is as liberal as Paul Wellstone.

6. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent)

  • The Fix: “The November election will be a seminal vote in determining the future direction of Colorado politics.”
  • The Electoral Map: Obama wins Colorado by wooing independents. Clinton looses to McCain.

5. Ohio (Bush, 51 percent)

  • The Fix: “A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed… Clinton leading McCain 48 percent to 39 percent while Obama took 43 percent to 42 percent for McCain — a potential problem for Democrats if Obama winds up as the nominee.”
  • The Electoral Map: Ohio is Clinton’s best argument. Her win in Strickland’s old sixth district along the Ohio River Valley was impressive.

4. Virginia (Bush, 54 percent)

  • The Fix: “The fact that three Virginia Democrats — Sen. Jim Webb, Gov. Tim Kaine and former governor Mark Warner — are all mentioned as potential vice presidential picks and you quickly see why Virginia is moving up The Line.”
  • The Electoral Map: The biggest misconception is that Virginia is now a tossup. First of all, it’s still a Republican state, even if it has chosen Democrats in the last two gubernatorial elections and watched a Republican Senate incumbent self-destruct. McCain will win with strong support in the Navy-heavy Hampton Roads and with moderate Republicans in Fairfax County, Loudoun County and Richmond.

3. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent)

  • The Fix: “McCain gives Republicans a fighting chance in the state due to his neighbor appeal, but the state has been trending Democratic of late and either Clinton or Obama will be favored in the fall.”
  • The Electoral Map: Never been to New Mexico, but if it has a rivalry with Arizona in the same way that Virginia does with Maryland then John McCain might be in trouble.

2. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent)

  • The Fix: “As of last month, there were 441,676 active Democrats compared with 396,489 active registered Republicans.”
  • The Electoral Map: This state is growing so quickly, I haven’t come across one analyst who has a good read on it.

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent)

  • The Fix: “After a series of difficult reelection races in past cycles, Sen. Tom Harkin (D) faces no serious opposition from Republicans this fall — meaning he will almost certainly win a fifth term. Harkin’s race symbolizes Democrats’ ascendancy of late in the state — a trend line that should help whoever is the party’s presidential nominee.”
  • The Electoral Map: Iowa Democrats should be bullish after their 2006 drubbing.

Where’s Wisconsin??? Republicans have a better chance of winning the Badger State than Dems do of taking the Sunshine State.

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8 responses to “Cillizza Posts His Latest Electoral Map Line

  1. You’re pretty pessimistic!

    That said, the one quibble I have is where you are optimistic . If “Minnesota’s DNA is as liberal as Paul Wellstone,” Bush wouldnt have gotten 48% of the vote there, would he?

  2. link to original article

    Don’t make your readers go searching for the original article that you based this post on. Please provide a link.

  3. New Hampshire? McCain has not a shot, especially after the GOP’s 2006 debacle there.

    And New Jersey and Connecticut moderate? McCain has a slim-to-none shot in Jersey, and in Connecticut he has even less of a shot. In fact, with Lieberman by his side, he has even less of a shot than had Lieberman kept his mouth shut and not endorsed him.

    McCain loses NH by 3, NJ by 11, and CT by 21.

  4. The fact that Pennsylvania isnt on this list is ridiculous-
    just from the polling data alone, its incredibly purple- 8 polls for McCain, 6 for Obama, with an average 0.1% lead for Barack. With Clinton, its not even a contest…so the whole fate of the election could be decided by the primary alone.
    With the GOP @ 240 states safe, add ohio (where mccain has averaged a wider lead than bush in polling in 04)
    youre at 260.
    Pennsylvania makes it 281, even if McCain loses CO,NM,NV,IA and fails to pickup any other blue state.
    Virginia and Minnesota should be tossed off this list- MN didnt go to Reagan, its not going to McCain. Likewise as has already been commented on, VA is reliably red in presidential races.
    Wisconsin and PA shouldve been on this list.

  5. Recent polling suggests that Obama is weak in MA and NJ. If he loses either of them (by sheer badluck), either will overwrite a gain in Virginia.

    The author also forgets that if Clinton is the nominee, she can exclusively put AR, WV, and KY in play (kinda like CO and IA for Obama).

    And where’s Missouri? I thought either Dem will put that in play too.

  6. Lori, Missouri would be in play against Clinton, but against Obama its hardly a contest right now. McCain has been averaging a 10pt lead in my favorite bellweather state… Even the most recent poll (SurveyUSA) gives McCain a margin of victory wider than Bush’s in 2000 or 2004

  7. First Time Poster

    Affirmative Action on the ballot in Colorado will kill any chances for the Dems.

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