Pennsylvania Primer, Part I

Registration is way up for Democrats, which should benefit Barack Obama, according to Politico‘s Jeanne Cummings. The Politico also has a halfway decent map showing where registration is up, although the maps could be much better if A.) they were color-coded to show where registering is up, and B.) were able to be embedded into blogs such as this one.

Brookings also has a must-read about demographics in the Keystone State, with such interesting nuggets as “While often classed as a so-called ‘Rust Belt’ state, its eastern and south central regions are increasingly becoming part of the nation’s Northeast Corridor.”

Meanwhile, National Journal‘s Gregg Sangillo predicts where Obama will struggle, placing a heavy qualifier on race:

“The large rural swath in the center of the commonwealth—famously dubbed ‘Alabama’ by Democratic strategist James Carville—is home to culturally conservative white voters. In addition, the state has the highest per capita membership in the National Rifle Association in the country, according to the gun group. This region could prove especially difficult for Obama to win, according to experts.

“It’s not just the center of the state that could prove resistant to Obama’s skin tone. In Scranton and surrounding northeast locales Hillary Clinton is hugely popular.”

Poblano at FiveThirtyEight.com suggests the best thing Obama can get from these folks is a non-vote:

“If Obama is to stay within a few points of Clinton on Tuesday, what he’ll need is for a lot of those unlikely/undecided voters in the central portion of the state to decide they’re fed up with the whole thing and not vote. So, Obama should probably be rooting for low turnout overall. For Obama to actually win on Tuesday — not just stay close — he will probably also need high turnout in Philadelphia, and maybe among a couple of other select groups like newly-registered voters (who favor Obama 3:2 according to Franklin & Marshall) and students.”

Real Clear Politics’ John McIntyre weighs the outcomes, declaring that if Obama wins the “race is effectively over,” but if Clinton wins by more 14 points, she “will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate ‘winner’. In this scenario anything could ultimately happen.”

Check back tomorrow morning for my predictions of how each candidate will do in each county. In the meantime, here’s a screen shot of the Politicos voter registration map:

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2 responses to “Pennsylvania Primer, Part I

  1. It’s Poblano, with an “o”

  2. Pittsburgh area is “rust belt,” Philly area is “northeast,” and everything else is probably most comparable to VA or upstate NY.

    These maps on who switched party affiliation are impressive. LOTS of Republicans really want to vote in this primary, apparently. The exit poll data is going to be interesting.

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