Pennsylvania Primary Predictions

In Pennsylvania’s 2002 Democratic primary for governor, Ed Rendell beat Bob Casey 56-44% but took only 10 of the commonwealth’s 67 counties.  He did it by racking up huge margins in Philadelphia and its burbs, the exurbs around the Lehigh Valley and in Centre County, which is home to Penn State.

In 2008, Rendell is supporting Hillary Clinton and Casey is backing Barack Obama, but we can expect a reverse outcome of the 2002 contest.  Obama is likely to do well in and around Rendell’s base of Philly and Clinton will likely sweep Casey Country.  The only difference is that Clinton will likely do better than Casey in the Philly exurbs and Lehigh Valley, cutting into Obama’s margins there and giving her the clear win statewide.

In the map below, Casey is green and Rendell is purple.  The deepest color means the candidate won by over 25 percent; the middle color reflects a win of 5-25 percent; and the palest color is a win of less than 5 percent.

Pennsylvania 2002 Democratic Primary for Governor

2002 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary


2 responses to “Pennsylvania Primary Predictions

  1. Pingback: Pennsylvania Primary Maps - April 22, 2008 | Political Maps

  2. I thought 23/6’s coverage of the Primary was pretty entertaining:

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