Ambinder: Obama Must Win the West to Win the White House

On the heels of Barack Obama‘s tour through the West, Marc Ambinder declares that the Illinois senator is going to have to spend a lot more time in the region if he’s hopes to reach the White House:

“The ONLY way, given the electoral college map that Obama is presented with, he can win the presidency if he loses Ohio or Pennsylvania by winning the West — by winning at least four of these states: New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada and Washington. He cannot afford NOT to fight for the West. If he doesn’t fight for the West, he loses.”

The good news for Obama is that he can chalk up the electoral votes of Oregon and Washington.  He ran very strongly in those two states, as first below map shows, and is still polling very well there, as Karl Rove‘s map displays.  One reason for his success in the Pacific Northwest in the primaries is that he is received over 60% of the white male vote, which was one of his worst demographic groups back East and is sure to be a key swing vote come November (Jay Cost has a great graph I posted below).

As for the other three states: New Mexico certainly seems within reach if not only for the state of the GOP; Nevada remains a big question mark with its off-the-wall growth; and Colorado, the only place in America that is home to both the extremes of Boulder’s vegetarian environmentalists and Colorado Spring’s Focus on the Family disciples, is certain to be a major battleground.

Obama vs. Clinton Electoral Map — Pre-OR, WV and KY; Obama is blue and Clinton is red

Obama vs Clinton Electoral Map

Karl Rove & Co.’s Electoral Map

Rove\'s McCain Obama Electoral Map

Obama’s Performance with Select Demographic Groups

Obama\'s White Males Support


One response to “Ambinder: Obama Must Win the West to Win the White House

  1. I wish we could see some updated maps that include WV, KY, and OR.

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