Bob Novak released his prediction for the electoral map today, and it has John McCain squeaking by with 270 electoral votes to Barack Obama‘s 268. He actually breaks down all 50 states — Here are some interesting tidbits about swing states:
- Colorado: Novak puts it in the Democratic column and calls it “one of Obama’s best chances to win a Bush state.”
- Florida: Pointing to Cuba, seniors and vets, Novak predicts that it could very well “fade off the radar screen” for Obama.
- Indiana: Novak argues “McCain will have to work hard” to earn the Hoosier State’s 11 EV’s.
- Michigan: “Both candidates are weak in Michigan,” says Novak. But it’s still “McCain’s best chance” to win a blue state.
Other than those calls, Novak’s map looks fairly conventional and he notes that he doesn’t expect it to change much from 2004:
“The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama’s weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House.”
My question to Novak — Would it kill him to develop a color map?