I’m a former National Journal Group writer, so I never give those turkeys at CQ too much credit, but their analysis of battleground states is worth a look:
“In 2004, Kerry won Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire for a total of 69 electoral votes. Bush won Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and New Mexico for 46 electoral votes.
“Looking now at polls of these same states, Obama leads McCain in Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa which have a total of 64 electoral votes. McCain leads in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire which have a total of 46 electoral votes. This time around, the latest poll shows New Mexico as a toss-up.”
In this made that I made, the lighter shades represent states that CQ predicts are likely to flip and the yellow means up for grabs.
CQPolitics.com’s Electoral Map