Could Obama Really Win a State in the South?

If Barack Obama wins any of the states in the former Confederacy, it’ll probably be Virginia or North Carolina. But a few analysts have suggested that he could boost African-African turnout across the rest of the south — the Deep South, mind you — to make some really red states competitive. Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder, who were both my bosses at The Hotline and who are two brightest political minds I know, have hinted that Obama could make Georgia and Mississippi interesting.

Chuck wrote in March that “Mississippi is one of those rare Southern states that might be in play in the general election if Obama becomes the nominee. One Dem statistician tells First Read that there are three red states that could swing if African-American turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout): Georgia, Louisiana and, yes, Mississippi. So don’t assume this is just one of those untouchable red states.”

Marc took it a step further in May and broke down the actual numbers, asking, “Did you know that a half a million African Americans in Georgia are eligible to vote but haven’t registered? The Obama campaign knows this. And they plan to register these voters by November, campaign folks say.” The Southern Political Report noted on Tuesday that the DCCC and DSCC have already registered 70,000 new voters in some Louisiana parishes.

Stateline also took a look at it on Tuesday and noted that “Some Democrats hold out hope that Obama could actually win one of the six Southern states that he won so convincingly during the primary season — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina — all of which have voted strongly Republican in recent presidential elections.” But the key phrase from that observation might have been that Dems are “holding out hope,” because after all, it’ll be a long shot.

Tom Schaller, another superb political handicapper, actually crunched the numbers (something that no one else has done), and found that Obama is facing steep odds. In a conversation about white voters posted on Salon, Schaller presented his data:

“I did a correlation between the black share of statewide population in the 11 Confederate states and the share of Bush‘s support among white voters, and it correlates at .76 with all 11 confederate states and if you take Texas out, which Bush obviously did well in, though it has a relatively low black population, with a data set of just 10 data points, it correlates at .9. Human height and weight doesn’t correlate at .9. With 10 data points, it’s ridiculous. I don’t even think this is an empirical matter of dispute.”

Schaller has a point and his numbers are tough to argue with.  But if Obama’s campaign is really about redrawing the electoral map and scrapping the old Clinton-Bush model, then he needs to leave no stone unturned and leave no county uncontested.

Regional Reporters Lower Expectations

Each state tends to have a marquee political reporter who sets the tone for campaign coverage but also serves as occasional cheerleader for that state’s electoral importance.  Think Des Moines Register‘s David Yespen skewering a candidate for downplaying the caucuses or the New Hampshire Union-Leader‘s John DiStaso defending the Granite State’s treasured first-in-the-nation status.

Even Arkansas News‘ John Brummett once argued to me that “Arkansas’ six electoral votes were as decisive as Florida” in the 2000 presidential election.

But in the last few days we’ve noticed a couple of reporters getting a little down on their states.  St. Pete’s Times and Florida political sage Adam Smith fretted that the Florida was loosing its place in the political sun.  “It’s time to broach an unspeakable, heretical suggestion in this state,” he wrote on Saturday. “Maybe, just maybe, Democrats can continue snubbing America’s biggest swing state and still march into the White House.”

Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Larry Eichel lowered expectations even further for his state.  “The primary will be important, but not all-important,” he explained. “It will not turn out to be just another contest. But it’s not looking anything like a final confrontation either.”  Eichel went on to crunch the numbers on how the Keystone State accounted for fewer delegates than states that vote on May 6.

Greenville News’ Dan Hoover was a little bit more praiseworthy of his state, noting, “McCain is another in line of Republicans, beginning with Ronald Reagan in 1980, who needed and used South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary as a launching pad to the nomination.”  But Hoover is sure to throw in a disclaimer: “McCain isn’t in the Oval Office yet and may never be.” Thanks for clearing that up; we wouldn’t want to get the wrong impression of South Carolina.

South Carolina Democratic Electoral Map

The AP and the New York Times call it a “rout,” and the Washington Post and Politico describe it as “an overwhelming victory.” Barack Obama won 55 percent in the South Carolina Democratic primary today, taking 44 of 46 counties and receiving more votes than every candidate combined in the 2004 primary.

Obama did it pulling together a historic coalition of black and white voters. According to exits polls, he won nearly a quarter of white voters and took a whoppin’ 80 percent of black votes.

His biggest margin of victory was in Richland County, home to the state capital of Columbia, where he won by nearly 25,000 votes. But he also won over 70 percent in five counties: Jasper, Williamsburg, Marion, Lee and Sumter (It’s interesting that the names of two of those counties – Lee and Sumter – pay homage to the Civil War, which I might note was sparked in Charleston Harbor).

In its Political Geography feature, the Post called “The Midlands” a key battleground because it “has the highest percentage of Democrats in the state.” Loosely defined, it’s a band whose northern border stretches from around Rock Hill near the North Carolina border down to McCormick on the Georgia border.

The southern border of the Midlands arcs from around Allendale County on the Savannah River, which Ambinder once noted is the poorest county in this poor state, to Dillon County on the North Carolina border. As the Times’ map shows, Obama did great in the Midlands.

Hillary Clinton and John Edwards ended up winning one county each. Hillary won Horry County, the home of Myrtle Beach, and Edwards took Seneca County, where he was born. Hillary couldn’t wait to get out the state and by 7:30 p.m. was “wheels up” (in advance staffer lingo) to Nashville, Tenn., which is a good 400 miles from Columbia.

TIME’s Halperin notes that she’ll stay in the Volunteer State and do an event in Memphis tomorrow, while Obama will shoot down to Macon, Ga. and Birmingham Ala. and Edwards will make an appearance in Dublin, Ga.

On a side note, I always have considered South Carolina barbecue to be mustard-based. North Carolina (East Carolina really) is vinegar-based and Memphis is tomato-based. But the map I have below of South Carolina que styles shows that Memphis and North Carolina have a strong influence on the Palmetto State. Looks like Edwards did well in the Memphis region while Clinton (whose style is all vinegar) won a county in the North Carolina area.

South Carolina Barbecue

South Carolina’s Midlands (Washington Post)

Electoral Map of Barack Obama in South Carolina (Washington Post)

Electoral Map of Hillary Clinton in South Carolina (Washington Post)

Electoral Map of John Edwards in South Carolina (Washington Post)

Barack’s Obama Margin of Victory in South Carolina (New York Times)

Race in South Carolina

Darker purple means more African-American.

South Carolina Electoral Map, 2004

 

Electoral Map Daily Compass: Rudy in Florida Edition

Readers — My apologies for not posting more often this week. I’m going to have an item up each [week]day from here on out. To gets things started off on the right foot, here’s the Electoral Map’s Daily Compass for today.

The big questions this week: Will the sun shine on Rudy Giuliani next Tuesday? And has Barack Obama built a winning coalition in South Carolina?

• Carl Leubsdorf analyzes Rudy’s big gamble: “The former mayor’s support has begun to drop in his supposed coastal strongholds.”
• And Campaigns & Elections asks, “Can Giuliani Re-Draw the Map?”
• Mort Kondracke examines the GOP Suburban Caucus, reppin’ “from San Diego to Connecticut.”
• Kurtz anticipates the Super Tuesday battle for “New York and California and all the super duper states in between.”
• Ex-Hotliners Reid Wilson and Kyle Trygstad interview John Ensign about the Senate electoral map.
• E.J. Kalafarski and Chadwick Matlin at Map the Candidates have Dems hitting the Palmetto State and GOPers soaking up the Sunshine State.
• Ambinder looks at Obama’s demograhpics: “Obama’s South Carolina coalition bodes well for him in other Southern states, such as Alabama and Georgia, where wave after wave of white working-class voters have deserted the Democratic Party. But in the largest states voting on Tsunami Tuesday, February 5, (California, New Jersey, and New York) and in later-voting large states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas), the party’s changing demographics work against Obama.” (subscription required)
• Jonathan Martin reports that Huck wants to “build a massive highway from Bangor, Maine, to Miami.”
• Condé Nast Portfolio presents the map of union membership in the United States. Notice how it mirrors the traditional electoral map. What came first the chicken or the egg?

Union Membership by State, 2007

The Presidential Electoral Map, 2004

More Nevada and South Carolina Electoral Maps

Nicholas Beaudrot has great maps measuring the strength of the leading candidates in Nevada and South Carolina.  For the Democrats in Nevada, he notes that “Clinton won big not just in Vegas, but also the two neighboring counties, while Obama won the north and fared best in the sparsely populated Northeast.”

Beaudrot’s Nevada Democratic Caucus Map

For the Republicans in South Carolina, Beaudrot writes “McCain managed to win Columbia, Charleston, and Myrtle Beach areas—the last two by large margins—while Huckabee won the Greenville-Spartanburg area as well as the more socially conservative northern counties, though not by the tremendous margins he would have needed.”

Beaudrot’s South Carolina Primary Map

South Carolina Electoral Map

With snow heading toward Tahoe and the Packers and Chargers gearing up for big wins, I’ll do my best to post some more South Carolina electoral map and analysis. In the meantime, here’s the Washington Post electoral map of the Republican South Carolina primary.

As Politico‘s Jonathan Martin has mentioned before, “if you could smell saltwater, you were in McCain country.” John McCain ran up big margins along the coast, including a 44-19% victory over Mitt Romney in Charleston and a 45-28% win over Mike Huckabee in Colleton County.

Huckabee did best in the more culturally conservative counties Upstate, including Spartanburg, Greenville and Pickens Counties.

South Carolina Republican Electoral Map

The Electoral Map is in Tahoe for the Weekend

… But I’ll reporting on the South Carolina Republican and Nevada Democratic results this Saturday.

Electoral Map Daily Compass

The pundits were in total agreement going into New Hampshire that Barack Obama would walk away with a win. In the aftermath, they’re once again on the same page, but this time the pundits are in agreement that they were all wrong — or more accurately, that they were foolish to trust the pollsters, who were the real screw-ups.

This all may be true, but it seems a little ridiculous that the CW is just as clear after the election as it way beforehand. Still, there are some smart voices in the crowd. Here are a few:

Analyzing New Hampshire

Real Clear Politics’ Jay Cost: “Hillary Clinton won many elements of the traditional FDR coalition…. Obama, on the other hand, had a very different electorate – one that has a bit in common with the insurgent candidacies of Gary Hart and Bill Bradley…. Clinton’s is the type of electorate that has delivered Democrats the nomination again and again. These results remind me a great deal of the electorate that delivered Mondale the nomination in 1984.”

Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal: “Sen. Hillary Clinton won working-class neighborhoods and less-affluent rural areas. Sen. Barack Obama won the college towns and the gentrified neighborhoods of more affluent communities. Put another way, Mrs. Clinton won the beer drinkers, Mr. Obama the white wine crowd. And there are more beer drinkers than wine swillers in the Democratic Party.”

Washington Post’s Harold Meyerson: “The old divisions of class, and the sometime divisions of age, are plain to see. Like Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Al Gore before her, Clinton is winning downscale and older voters, and the support of party regulars. Like Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley before him, Obama has the backing of more upscale and younger voters, and independents. Obama carried the college towns. Clinton swamped him in working-class Manchester.”

Beyond New Hampshire

Looking to Michigan, Detroit Free Press writer Justin Hyde reminds the GOP candidates that “Michigan has as many unemployed job seekers as Republicans had voters in Iowa and New Hampshire combined.”

Politico’s Jonathan Martin parses Michigan political geography and explains why Mike Huckabee could be a thorn in the side of Mitt Romney. Explaining Huckabee’s Michigan appeal, he writes, “First, the conservative Catholics, evangelicals and Dutch Reformed members.… have somebody who speaks their language about faith and the sanctity of life…. Second, Huck’s populist shtick, up now in his first Michigan TV spot, is bound to play well in a state suffering through an economic downturn with a heavy blue-collar population. Recall: Macomb County is the home of the Reagan Democrats. So Romney’s CEO polish could be appealing for some — but it could remind others that he’s a CEO’s son from Bloomfield Hills and Cranbrook.”

And in South Carolina, ABC’s Jake Tapper reports that Ed Rollins is pointing to “two groups of voters who would be amenable to Huckabee’s message: Evangelicals open to his faith and values, and disaffected former ‘Reagan Democrats’ who helped then-President Ronald Reagan win overwhelmingly in his 1984 re-election campaign.”

CBS News suggests that “Obama believes he has a chance to revolutionize Presidental politics in the south…. Obama talks about winning Mississippi, where a third of the population is black, and Georgia as well. He believes Tennessee and South Carolina could be in play as well. Former South Carolina Governor Jim Hodges is an Obama supporter.”

The New York Times ventures down to the “political testing ground” of Arkansas, a small state “where history has created an unusual blend of Southern conservatism and Western populism, and where storytelling is a cultural value.”