Category Archives: Uncategorized

Electoral Map Daily Compass

  • FLORIDA: In a conference call, Rep. Robert Wexler (with Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz) suggests that McCain is “most anti-Florida candidate in modern history” [First Read].
  • INDIANA: A new makes me wonder if this state still Hoosier red [TPM Election Central].
  • ELECTORAL MAP: Another new poll finds Catholics are moving back to the Democrats. And don’t forget “There are plenty of Catholics in the Southwest, too — they are among John McCain’s target audiences.” [Ambinder]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: Paul Maslin, Tom Schaller, Andres Ramriez and Ross Douthat — a crack team — identify the 2008 swing states [Salon].
  • GEOGRAPHY: Why trains don’t work in America [Pajamas Media].
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Confederate Flag Adorns Florida’s “Most Important Swing Region”

The Sons of the Confederacy hoisted the world’s largest Rebel flag last week at a intersection of two major interstates in Tampa.  It’s a 30′ x 50′ Stars and Bars that will be lit at night and will stand on private land at the junction of Interstate 75 and Interstate 4.

Interstate 4, as all political demographers know, is the main artery in what one Florida reporter recently described as “the most important swing region in the nation’s biggest swing state.”  The I-4 Corridor, as it’s called, includes 14 counties between the Tampa metro area and Daytona Beach, and is considered a pivotal area in Florida elections.

“Since at least 1980, the combined votes in those 14 counties have almost perfectly reflected the votes of the state as a whole,” wrote Tampa Tribune reporter William Marsh in May on the eve of Barack Obama‘s visit to  Tampa.   It’s the swing region between reliably Republican north and southwestern Florida and staunchly Democratic southeastern Florida.

Marsh also cited USF professor Susan McManus who predicted that Obama might have a tough time winning the I-4 Corridor.  She noted Republicans’ edge in registration, the fact that many voters here are older and value “experience and stability,” and the presence of suburbanites who could be susceptible to allegations about Obama’s patriotism.

But judging by the 1500 square foot Rebel battle flag flying 139 feet over the I-4 Corridor’s largest media market, does Obama have another hurdle to worry about here?

Earmarks by State: Arizona vs. Alaska

AP has a map of earmarks by state per capita.  Don Young‘s Alaska rakes in the most at $506.34 per capita and Jeff Flake‘s Arizona brings in the least at $19.70 per capita.

Earmarks Per Capita (AP)

Earmarks Per Capita

The Electoral Map is Back

Readers — Sorry for the delay in updating content this last week — I was off the grid for an extended weekend.  I’m back in DC now, though, and will be updating The Electoral Map regularly again.

Patrick

Is it Time to Declare a Democratic Resurgency in the South?

Two special elections looses in the South have some Republicans worrying that their electoral stranglehold on the region may be loosening.  Case in point: The Washington Times’ David Lambro, who’s about as right-of-center as any prominent Beltway correspondent, co-authored an article today under the headline, “Democrats again whistling Dixie.”

And J-Mart points to a quote from Clark Reed, who the Wall Street Journal refers to as “one of the great architects of resurgent Republicanism in the South,” lamenting that the times are a-changin’ down Dixie way.  “Is the Republican solid South over?” asked the Journal.  “‘Yeah. Oh year,’ [Reed] said. ‘I eat lunch every day at Buck’s Cafe.  Obama‘s picture is all over the wall.'”

OREGON: Where Ax Men Meet Prius Drivers

Poblano at FiveThirtyEight.com has a great post about the electoral dynamics in the Land of Nike, a place where Prius-driving liberals mix with conservative, blue collar ax men.

“The liberals in Oregon are as liberal as any in the country, whereas the conservatives are as conservative as any in the country,” Poblono explains. “This is how you wind up with the weird political soup wherein Oregon has decriminalized marijuana but has also passed a gay marriage ban, or how it allows assisted suicide but also has one of the nation’s lowest effective tax rates.”

Expect Barack Obama to cruise to an easy victory here in the Democratic primary. But don’t expect the general to be as easy for him in a state that as recently as 1996 gave the Democratic nominee only 47%.

North Carolina Electoral Map

Barack Obama ran up huge margins in the fast-growing counties around the Research Triangle, in the big cities like Charlotte (Mecklenberg County), in the medium-sized cities like Winston-Salem and in the heavily black counties bordering Virginia.  Hillary Clinton, for her part, continued to show her strength in Appalachia, winning every county west of Charlotte besides the outdoorsy outposts of Buncombe and Watauga Counties.

I’ve thought all along that North Carolina is a state tailor-made for an Obama win: It has hoards of young, independent voters in the fast-growing parts of the state, a large student and bohemian population and a large black electorate.  But his 14 point win on Tuesday was more impressive than even I would have expected.

Here’s Nick Beaudrot of Cogitamusblog.com‘s fine map of the Tarheel State:

North Carolina Electoral Map

North Carolina Electoral Map