Tag Archives: Georgia

Electoral Map Daily Compass

The Daily Compass is back!

  • ALASKA: Nate Silver lays out the argument for an Obama trip to Alaska [FiveThirtyEight.com]
  • GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage has Obama tied with McCain [Southern Political Report]
  • IOWA: McCain and Bush tour the Hawkeye State 60 miles apart [New York Times]
  • IOWA: SurveyUSA says Obama/Webb is the strongest Democratic ticket; McCain/Bloomberg is the best GOP one [Race 4 2008]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: The very real possibility that Obama wins the popular vote and looses the Electoral College [Politico]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: Obama‘s battleground states ad buy includes North Dakota, Montana, Alaska and Indiana but not New Jersey, Oregon and Washington [Politico‘s Ben Smith]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: The McCain camp is contesting 52 Democratic EV’s; the Obama team is going after 148 Republican EV’s [Cogitamus]

Obama Camp Says It Doesn’t Need Ohio or Florida

If you’ve lived in Miami, Ohio or Miami, Florida during the last few election cycles, you’ve probably grown accustomed to being lavished with attention — or maybe annoyed to exhaustion — by the political campaigns.

Well, last week the Obama camp declared that its road to the White House won’t necessary run through these behemoth battlegrounds. Cleveland and Cape Canaveral will be important campaign stops, but not the end-all-be-all’s that they use to be.

In a meeting with donors, manager David Plouffe suggested that while the campaign thinks it’s competitive in those two states and would like to win them, it doesn’t need them. “You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe said, according to Huffington Post. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th.”

Plouffe pointed to a number of intriguing targets, with Virginia and Georgia on top of the list. If you’ve read my Politico column from today, “Virginia will be an uphill battle for Obama,” you’ll know the Old Dominion is not the lay-up that many in the Obama camp and national media think it is.

Georgia, however, is a fascinating prospect: I still think it’s out of reach for Democrats but if the African-American vote is boosted by, say, 500,000, as Ambinder thinks it could be, and Bob Barr runs strong in his home state, then the Peach State could be interesting.

Besides those two former linchpins of the Confederacy, the Obama camp also sees opportunities in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Alaska and North Dakota. He also noted that they need to watch their back in Michigan, Pennsylvania and especially New Hampshire.

Bob Barr Could Make Georgia and North Carolina Competitive

A new poll for a former adviser to Newt Gingrich suggests that Libertarian candidate Bob Barr could pick off enough votes in Georgia and North Carolina to make the two states competitive for Barack Obama.  The InsiderAdvantage survey found Barr picking up 8 percent in Georgia and 6 percent in North Carolina, putting Obama within three points of McCain in the Tarheel State.

I make a point of not dwelling on polls at The Electoral Map, but North Carolina is a state the Obama camp has repeatedly boasted that it could put into play.  It has a large bloc of African-American voters and a bustling new population of creative-class independents, mostly around the Research Triangle but also in Charlotte.  If Barr continues to poll well there, it makes sense for Obama to execute on his promise and make North Carolina a Tier I target.

Georgia Wants to Redraw Border with Tennessee

It’s always been about “states’ rights” in the South. This time, Georgia state legislators say they have the right to water from the Tennessee River, citing a faulty 1818 survey that placed the Georgia-Tennessee border over a mile south of where it should be.

The border should have been set at the 35th parallel, but according to reports by the AP, surveyors sent to the piedmont from Washington either used antiquated equipment or were scared off by an Indian party. Either way, the border was set about a mile off its mark.

Georgia state Sen. David Shafer (R) says “It’s never too late to right a wrong,” and is eyeing the River as Atlanta searches for ways to quench its thirst during the unprecedented drought that has gripped the Southeast in the last year.

On November 1, 2007, the White House brokered a deal between Georgia, Alabama and Florida over rights to water from the Chattahoochee River (I noted at the time that it was interesting to see Washington stepping in to assist Southern governors afflicted by an act of God. On the same day in 1861, another act of God — a late-season hurricane — battered Union ships off the Georgia coast and saved the Southern governors who were rebelling from Washington).

The Georgia-Tennesee line isn’t the only state border that has been disputed recently. Developers in New Jersey who were trying to build a natural gas refinery on the banks of the Delaware River were thwarted by Delaware legislators who reminded them that the New Jersey’s border stopped at the banks of the river. The docks would have been crossing into Delaware.

Rarely do these disputes ever result in new border lines, and almost never do states settle the disputes with hostile action. But as Tennessee partisans are calling all hands to deck in the Vol Navy, they should remember Virginia’s successful invasion of North Carolina.

In the summer of 1718, a ruthless pirate named Blackbeard (real name Edward Teach) ran his Queen Anne’s Revenge aground on the shoals of the Albemarle Sound. After Blackbeard set up a de facto truce with North Carolina’s weak governor, Virginia Governor Alexander Spotswood decided it was time to rid the Atlantic colonies of this menace.

Spotswood sent two sloops commanded by Lt. Robert Maynard into North Carolina. Maynard and the 60 men under his command ultimately defeated Blackbeard, and took his head back to Hampton, Va., where they placed in on a spike in the town square.

Georgia-Tennessee State Line (Google Maps)

Georgia-Tennessee State Line

New Jersey-Delaware State Line (Christian Science Monitor)

New Jersey-Delaware State Line

Super Tuesday Maps

It’s been a busy week, but with the dust settled from Super Tuesday, we now have a clear picture of who won.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama took 14 states to Hillary Clinton’s eight, although Hillary prevailed in more populous states like California and New York. The result was a near-tie: Hillary won 50.2 percent and Obama took 49.8 percent.

Hillary did the best on the coasts, but also won inland states like Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arizona. Her win in California, where the Clinton brand is strong, was perhaps the most impressive – the state was expected to be a nail-biter but she won by nearly 10 points.

Meanwhile, the Obama camp is touting victories in red states such as Missouri, Kansas, Utah and Idaho, as well as decisive wins in the deep southern states of Georgia and Alabama. His wins in Connecticut and New Mexico were also surprising.

Super Tuesday Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Super Tuesday Democratic Electoral Map


California Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

 California Democratic Electoral Map

Georgia Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Georgia Democratic Electoral Map

On the Republican side, it was John McCain’s day. He dominated big states like California and New York and won every state on the Metroliner Corridor besides Romney’s Massachusetts (although McCain did win Boston).

McCain also posted victories in crucial heartland states like Missouri and Illinois. McCain won Peoria County, Ill. thereby answering the question “Will it play in Peoria? But in Missouri, he lost Rush Limbaugh’s home county of Cape Girardeau. The Peoria and Cape Girardeau outcomes say a lot of McCain’s appeal: He’s accepted in the mainstream but has trouble in conservative bastions.

Mike Huckabee swept SEC country, from Fayetteville to Athens. Mitt Romney took the silver medal in the delegate count, and won the states he’s lived in along with a handful of Western states, but it wasn’t enough to keep him competitive.

Super Tuesday Republican Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Super Tuesday Republican Electoral Map

Missouri Republican Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Missouri Republican Electoral Map


Huck Looks for the SEC Sweep

From Mike Hucakbee during his press conference:

“It’s tough for this ole Razorback to say things like ‘Roll, Tide, Roll,’ but I’m doing it tonight. And it’s tough for this ole Razorback to look over there at the state just to the East of us and say that ‘We’re, too, Volunteers.’ I think before the night is over I’ll even be singing ‘Rocky Top.’ This ole Razorback may even catch some Bulldog fever before the night is over.”

Southeastern Conference

Southeastern Conference

Republican Electoral Map of the South

Republican Electoral Map of the South

Mormon Backlash down South?

Via Jonathan Martin.

Romney is lagging far behind McCain and Huck in the rural counties.

But he’s winning the suburbs and exurbs around Nashville and Atlanta. Places like Forsyth Co (GA) and Williamson Co (TN).

Why the difference?

As anybody from these states can tell you, these areas are demographically different than everywhere else.

They’re conservative and reliably Republican, but they’re full of transients (“come-heres”) who tend to hail from the northeast and midwest.

And they’re not likely to have any hang-ups on such matters as Mitt’s faith.