Tag Archives: Mike Huckabee

Carrying the Banner for the Three Types of Republicans

Over at The Next Right, my NMS colleague Jon Henke has a post tackling the daunting topic of “The Future of the Right” and identifies three different types of Republicans: Progressive Republicans, Goldwater Republicans and Bush Republicans.

Progressive Republicans (aka: Teddy Roosevelt Republicans) are “generally reliable on limited government, but willing to go off on Big Government crusades.” Goldwater Republicans “vote for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense; they may have various opinions on social issues, but they subsume those views to the goal at hand: limiting government.” Bush Republicans are “willing to accept Big Government, so long as the government does socially conservative things. (See: Mike Huckabee).”

If you look at the map, Huckabee won SEC County, or the region that Joel Kotkin has said produced “George Bush’s Sun Belt mafia”; John McCain won states with old-school progressive heritages like Wisconsin and Teddy Roosevelt’s New York and Mitt Romney took the states where Goldwater’s ethos of libertarianism are strongest like the West, Maine and Ted Kaczynski’s old haunting ground of Michigan.

Does this mean that Huckabee, McCain and Romney carry the banner for Bush Republicans, Progressive Republicans and Goldwater Republicans, respectively?

2008 Republican Primaries Electoral Map

Republican Primaries Electoral Map


Super Tuesday II Maps: Hillary Confirms Her Coalition

Hillary Clinton made another first down last night, but it wasn’t enough to put her into the lead. She also reaffirmed the narrative that she has strong support in blue-collar and Latino communities, winning the Rust-Belt state of Ohio by 10 points and the border state of Texas by four.

In Ohio, she took the two counties surrounding Youngstown — the town that Springsteen lamented was littered by “scrap and rubble” — by a combined 46,000 votes. It was a clear display of her appeal in economically depressed areas.

In Texas, she won El Paso — the town that lent its name to a salsa — by 41,255 votes, and took Hidalgo County — home to the border-boomtown of McAllen — by 39,603. Those wide margins of victories demonstrated her appeal with Latinos.

For his part, Barack Obama made up significant ground in the last two weeks and nearly clipped Hilary in Texas, but geographically, he doesn’t have much to brag about.

In Ohio, he won only the counties that house Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati (and one more bordering Columbus) and lost 83 counties. In Texas, he won 25 counties — mostly pocketed around Dallas, Austin and Houston — and lost 226 counties. Obama’s dependence on urban votes certainly didn’t do much to prove his argument that he has appeal in traditionally red areas.

On the GOP side, McCain swept all 88 counties in Ohio and won 184 in Texas. Mike Huckabee was able to take a cluster near the Arkansas border that rippled southwest from Texarkana (which by the way he won by 48 points).

Oh yeah, and there were elections in Vermont and Rhode Island on Tuesday, too. McCain won every county in the GOP contests in both states, Obama swept the Green Mountain State and Hillary swept the Ocean State.

Texas Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

Texas Democratic Electoral Map

Texas Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

Texas Democratic Electoral Map

Texas Republican Electoral Map (New York Times)

Texas Republican Electoral Map

Ohio Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

Ohio Democratic Electoral Map

Ohio Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

Ohio Democratic Electoral Map

Texas Republican Electoral Map (New York Times)

Ohio Republican Electoral Map

Super Tuesday II

The Electoral Map will have Super Tuesday II results as soon as they’re available.  McCain is cruising to big victories in Texas and Ohio, and according to Huck —  who is giving his concession speech as I type this — the Arizona senator “will achieve the 1,191 delegates to become the Republican nominee.”

On the Dem side, Hill is looking unexpectedly strong in Ohio and Obama is winning in Texas.  Vermont has great local beers and Rhode Island has awesome chowdah, but neither state has many delegates.  That being said, Obama and McCain won the Green Mountain State, and the Ocean State is too close to call.

I’ll post the full results as they come in — stay tuned!

Electoral Map Daily Compass: Nearing Tipping Point Edition

First things first. If you love political geography, you’ll love this article by Joel Kotkin in the Politico on Tuesday: Has Cali’s political sway fizzled?

Now, on to the rest of today’s Electoral Map news:

Potomac Primary Fallout

  • Virginia will be in play this fall. [Washington Post]
  • Obama won counties in Virginia as white as a Word document. [Talk Left]
  • J-Mart on Obama dominating the Crescent. [Politico]
  • It really was Hillary’s back yard. [Howard Kurtz]

Where Hillary Goes From Here

  • “We didn’t put any resources in those small states.” [New York Observer]
  • Penn charts the roadmap to nomination. And, yes, it goes through Ohio and Texas. [Real Clear Politics]
  • Hillary will Badger the Wisconsin voters after all. [The Page]
  • Clinton camp adopts the Rudy strategy. [Politico]

Western Promises

Who Hearts Huckabee?

Virginia Electoral Map

Mike Huckabee took a respectable 41 percent, but John McCain won a 51 percent majority and all of Virginia’s 60 delegates. McCain did it by winning most of the eastern part of Virginia, including the so-called Crescent arching from NoVa to Richmond to Hampton Roads.

As the Times’ margin of victory map shows, McCain racked up huge vote tallies in Fairfax and Arlington Counties, which are full of both moderate Republicans and military personnel. He also posted huge wins around Quantico and Virginia Beach, home to the Marines Corps Base and the U.S. Navy Atlantic Fleet, respectively.

The Post’s prediction that Huck would do well in Pat Robertson’s Virginia Beach was wrong, but their call that he’d surge in Jerry Falwell’s Lynchburg was spot on. Huck racked up 60 percent in Lynchburg and swept the rest of the Shenandoah Valley and Southside.

Virginia Republican Electoral Map (Washington Post)

Virginia Republican Electoral Map

Virginia McCain Electoral Map (Washington Post)

Virginia McCain Electoral Map

Virginia Huckabee Electoral Map (Washington Post)

Virginia Huckabee Electoral Map

Virginia Margins of Victory (New York Times) — Note that the colors are different.


On the Democratic side, it was all Barack Obama. He won Richmond City by 20,000, Henrico County by 19,000 votes, Hampton by 15,000 and Virginia Beach by 15,000. But he also won rural counties, taking areas like the Northern Neck, Southside and the Valley on his way to winning 100 of 134 municipalities statewide.

Perhaps the telling wins were in Loudoun and Prince William Counties. Hillary Clinton campaigned heavily in these two bellwethers, but Loudoun gave Obama 62 percent and Prince William handed him 64 percent. Those counties are packed with independent voters who are attracted to candidates that preach post-partisanship.

If anyone knows about the Loudoun and PW it’s Gov. Tim Kaine (D), an Obama confidant who won both in 2005. Interestingly, Kaine’s 2005 campaign manager Mike Henry was relieved as deputy campaign of the Hillary campaign tonight. It turns out that the only congressional district Hillary will probably win is the ninth in southwestern coal country.

Virginia Democratic Electoral Map (Washington Post)

Virginia Democratic Electoral Map

Virginia Obama Electoral Map (Washington Post)

Virginia Obama Electoral Map

Virginia Clinton Electoral Map (Washington Post)

Virginia McCain Electoral Map

Virginia Margins of Victory (New York Times) — Note that the colors are different.

Virginia Margins of Victory

Who Will Ben Bradlee Vote For?

Once again, the Washington Post has a great map in its Political Geography feature, except this time it’s even better because the DMV primary (that’s DC-MD-VA) is right in their backyard. This is what the Post says about where the candidates have to do well:


  • Mike Huckabee needs to win Evangelicals and might find fertile ground in Pat Robertson‘s home base on Lynchburg and Jerry Falwell‘s base of Virginia Beach. He also needs to excel in rural areas including Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore, and Southside and Southwest Virginia.
  • John McCain needs to run up the vote in military communities surrounding the Pentagon, Quantico and Annapolis (My note to the Post: McCain will probably dominate in Virginia Beach, home base to the U.S. Navy Atlantic Fleet). He also should do well with moderates in Loudoun County, Va. and Montgomerey County Md.


  • The Post predicts Hillary Clinton should do well with Hispanics in Loudoun and conservatives in Prince William. But the truth of the matter is that most of the Hispanics live in PW (not Loudoun), and they are fiercely at odds with conservatives in those communities. Just look at the tension in Manassas. Hillary could give Obama a run in the southwest and Southside.
  • Barack Obama should rack up huge margins in the Democratic fertile crescent arching from NoVa to Richmond to Hampton Roads. The Post seems to skim over the fact he’ll probably rack up huge margins in the People’s Republic of Arlington, as well as in Alexandria and Charlottesville.
  • Toss-Ups — This is interesting: The Post points to southern Maryland as battleground based on the African-American voting bloc and white, female working-class voters.

The Post also printed an editorial about the Chesapeake Primary today calling the region a “microcosm for America”:

“[It’s] a dazzlingly diverse region that is in many ways a highly representative geographic and demographic microcosm of America: rural and urban areas; suburbs and exurbs; terrific wealth and grave poverty; beaches and ski resorts; mountains to the west, an ocean to the east and fresh water in between; the heart of the Old Confederacy (Virginia), a border state (Maryland) and, in the case of the District, Richmond and Baltimore, biggish cities brimming with problems and promise.”

On to the map. It’s only a screen shot, so click here for the full Political Geography feature.

Chesapeake Primary

Chesapeake Primary

Super Tuesday Maps

It’s been a busy week, but with the dust settled from Super Tuesday, we now have a clear picture of who won.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama took 14 states to Hillary Clinton’s eight, although Hillary prevailed in more populous states like California and New York. The result was a near-tie: Hillary won 50.2 percent and Obama took 49.8 percent.

Hillary did the best on the coasts, but also won inland states like Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arizona. Her win in California, where the Clinton brand is strong, was perhaps the most impressive – the state was expected to be a nail-biter but she won by nearly 10 points.

Meanwhile, the Obama camp is touting victories in red states such as Missouri, Kansas, Utah and Idaho, as well as decisive wins in the deep southern states of Georgia and Alabama. His wins in Connecticut and New Mexico were also surprising.

Super Tuesday Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Super Tuesday Democratic Electoral Map


California Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

 California Democratic Electoral Map

Georgia Democratic Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Georgia Democratic Electoral Map

On the Republican side, it was John McCain’s day. He dominated big states like California and New York and won every state on the Metroliner Corridor besides Romney’s Massachusetts (although McCain did win Boston).

McCain also posted victories in crucial heartland states like Missouri and Illinois. McCain won Peoria County, Ill. thereby answering the question “Will it play in Peoria? But in Missouri, he lost Rush Limbaugh’s home county of Cape Girardeau. The Peoria and Cape Girardeau outcomes say a lot of McCain’s appeal: He’s accepted in the mainstream but has trouble in conservative bastions.

Mike Huckabee swept SEC country, from Fayetteville to Athens. Mitt Romney took the silver medal in the delegate count, and won the states he’s lived in along with a handful of Western states, but it wasn’t enough to keep him competitive.

Super Tuesday Republican Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Super Tuesday Republican Electoral Map

Missouri Republican Electoral Map (New York Times)

 Missouri Republican Electoral Map