Golden Gopher

Barack Obama will deliver his victory speech tonight in Minneapolis’ XCel Energy Center, the same arena where John McCain will accept the GOP nomination this summer.

Is it a coincidence?

I doubt it. The Gopher State was once reliably blue and as recently as 1988 ranked 6th in Democratic performance. But in 2004, John Kerry snuck by George W. Bush by less than three points.

It’s a vital swing state and one that political handicappers like Paul Maslin have noted Obama has to “absolutely, positively has to win” if he hopes to reach 270. He most likely will win it, but expect him to visit many more times. McCain will make sure of it.

A Response to Soren Dayton’s “Map for Victory”

Soren Dayton posted a fascinating analysis at Red State last week detailing the ward-by-ward electoral map of Philadelphia and concluding that Barack Obama ‘s poor performance in ethic Catholic neighborhoods might signal a “realignment that puts the Northeast and the Rust Belt back in play” (If you haven’t seen it yet, it’s a must-read and has great maps to reinforce his argument).

I emailed Soren after he posted it and mentioned that while Obama has certainly been struggling with ethic Catholics, he’s excelled with mainline, Midwestern Protestants and has won key states in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Obama’s weakness with ethics in Rust Belt states could be offset by his strength with the civic-minded Lutherans (and to a lesser extend Methodists) or Northern European descent in the Upper Midwest.

Soren emailed back his response, noting that there really is no data to back up the point that mainline Protestants are supporting Obama, and in any event, mainline Protestants who are Democrats are a pretty liberal bunch. Think Jim McGovern, he suggested. Soren also addressed Rust Belt ethics, noting that “The urban Catholic thing is probably different enough from the Jacksonian/Scots-Irish thing,” and that this voting bloc still has functioning machines in many Eastern industrial cities.

I agree with Soren on ethic Catholics, but I’m still not sure if it would offset Obama’s appeal in the Upper Midwest. Here’s my response to Soren:

I don’t have specific data to prove my point, but I think you’re underestimating Obama’s strength with the type of voters in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. He won the overwhelmingly white caucus states of Iowa and Minnesota (and working class whites in Wisconsin) because voters in these state hail from a Northern European heritage that values effective government over ideology. And they’re attracted to Obama’s abstract post-partisan messages of good-government and “hope” and are willing to overlook his liberalism.

Cultural issues like abortion might work with Southern Baptists and Rust Belt Catholics, but the Dutch Calvinists and German Lutherans of the Upper Midwest have a different agenda. They think in terms of efficiently rather than ideology, as evidenced by the fact that Iowa has always had the best schools and highest graduation rates, Minnesota has always had the highest voter participation rate and well-funded public radio and Wisconsin has the only publicly-owned pro sports franchise.

The Rust Belt Catholics that you mentioned, on the other hand, are certainly a vulnerable point for Obama. He’s been losing ethic Catholics as a dangerous rate, and Tom Schaller has noted that “In every presidential election since 1972 the winner of the Catholic vote has won the national popular vote, something no other religious group – Jews, evangelicals, Protestants – can boast.” Bush took 52 percent of Catholics in 2004 and Democrats won 55 percent of the demographic group in 2006.

Assuming he’s the nominee, Obama’s best chance to offset McCain’s targeting of ethic Catholics in the Rust Belt and industrial East Coast cities would be to target what I call Volvo Republicans. These “Obamacans,” as the candidate has called them, are prevalent in the Philadelphia and Northern Virginia suburbs. They’re the kind of Matthew Dowd-type of Republicans who have said they’d feel queasy attacking Obama (But that was before the Wright controversy, and I wonder if that episode may have had a lasting effect).

If McCain can secure those suburban, Volvo Republicans and win a strong proportion of ethic, conservative Catholics in cities Philadelphia, he has a good chance of winning Pennsylvania and even putting New Jersey and other Northeastern states into play. But he’s going to have a tougher time countering Obama’s appeal with mainline Protestants in the Upper Midwest, especially if the GOP decides to focus on hot-button cultural issues.

Cillizza Posts His Latest Electoral Map Line

Washington Post‘s Chris Cillizza is releasing a new presidential electoral map line each Friday. Here is his latest list on Cillizza’s The Fix b.og, along with The Electoral Map’s own analysis. What do you think?

10. Florida (Bush, 52 percent)

• The Fix: “Polling suggests that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the nominee, then the state is a toss up; if Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is the Democratic standard-bearer — as is more likely — then presumptive GOP nominee John McCain holds a double-digit lead in current polling.”
• The Electoral Map: Florida is as red as the Georgia Bulldog’s jerseys.

9. New Hampshire (Kerry, 50 percent)

• The Fix: “There’s little doubt that McCain is extremely popular in the Granite State — especially with the independent voters who comprise the most crucial voting bloc. But New Hampshire is also one of the hotbeds of anti-war sentiment in the country.”
• The Electoral Map: Expect McCain to make a strong push for New Hampshire. He’ll make it his home base on Northeastern swings through the moderate states of Maine, Connecticut and New Jersey.

8. Michigan (Kerry, 51 percent)

• The Fix: “John Kerry won the state by just over 150,000 votes (out of more than 4.6 million cast) in 2004, and the ongoing question of whether and how Democrats will seat the Michigan delegation provides ammunition for Republicans to argue that the other party is trying to silence the voters of the state.”
• The Electoral Map: Didn’t Patrick Ruffini say McCain will win the Gerald Ford Republicans? Well, Ford was from Grand Rapids.

7. Minnesota (Kerry, 51 percent)

• “The Fix still believes Pawlenty is the frontrunner to serve as McCain’s runningmate, a scenario that if it comes to pass will make the Republican ticket quite competitive in Minnesota.”
• The Electoral Map: I love how Republicans are making a play for the Gopher State by hosting their convention there, but Minnesota’s DNA is as liberal as Paul Wellstone.

6. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent)

• The Fix: “The November election will be a seminal vote in determining the future direction of Colorado politics.”
• The Electoral Map: Obama wins Colorado by wooing independents. Clinton looses to McCain.

5. Ohio (Bush, 51 percent)

• The Fix: “A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed… Clinton leading McCain 48 percent to 39 percent while Obama took 43 percent to 42 percent for McCain — a potential problem for Democrats if Obama winds up as the nominee.”
• The Electoral Map: Ohio is Clinton’s best argument. Her win in Strickland’s old sixth district along the Ohio River Valley was impressive.

4. Virginia (Bush, 54 percent)

• The Fix: “The fact that three Virginia Democrats — Sen. Jim Webb, Gov. Tim Kaine and former governor Mark Warner — are all mentioned as potential vice presidential picks and you quickly see why Virginia is moving up The Line.”
• The Electoral Map: The biggest misconception is that Virginia is now a tossup. First of all, it’s still a Republican state, even if it has chosen Democrats in the last two gubernatorial elections and watched a Republican Senate incumbent self-destruct. McCain will win with strong support in the Navy-heavy Hampton Roads and with moderate Republicans in Fairfax County, Loudoun County and Richmond.

3. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent)

• The Fix: “McCain gives Republicans a fighting chance in the state due to his neighbor appeal, but the state has been trending Democratic of late and either Clinton or Obama will be favored in the fall.”
• The Electoral Map: Never been to New Mexico, but if it has a rivalry with Arizona in the same way that Virginia does with Maryland then John McCain might be in trouble.

2. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent)

• The Fix: “As of last month, there were 441,676 active Democrats compared with 396,489 active registered Republicans.”
• The Electoral Map: This state is growing so quickly, I haven’t come across one analyst who has a good read on it.

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent)

• The Fix: “After a series of difficult reelection races in past cycles, Sen. Tom Harkin (D) faces no serious opposition from Republicans this fall — meaning he will almost certainly win a fifth term. Harkin’s race symbolizes Democrats’ ascendancy of late in the state — a trend line that should help whoever is the party’s presidential nominee.”
• The Electoral Map: Iowa Democrats should be bullish after their 2006 drubbing.

Where’s Wisconsin??? Republicans have a better chance of winning the Badger State than Dems do of taking the Sunshine State.

Will John McCain Paint the Map Red?

John Fund sure thinks so. In a Wall Street Journal column from Monday (that I put off until day because of the Potomac Primary), Fund explains how McCain gets to 270:

• New Hampshire: “The Granite State went only narrowly to Mr. Kerry, a senator from a neighboring state, and Mr. McCain has unique advantages there. New Hampshire elections are determined by how that state’s fiercely independent voters go, and Mr. McCain has won over many of them in both the 2000 and 2008 GOP primaries. He spent 47 days in New Hampshire before this year’s primary and is well-known in the state.”
• Rocky Mountain West: “McCain’s roots in the Rocky Mountain West complicate Democratic efforts to take states in that region.”
• Nevada and Colorado: “His fierce individualism and support for property rights play well in Nevada and Colorado, which were close in 2004.”
• New Mexico: “Next door to Mr. McCain’s Arizona, gave Mr. Bush a very narrow 49.6% to 49% victory in 2004. But Mr. McCain’s nuanced position on immigration marks him as the GOP candidate who is most likely to hold the Hispanic voters who are the key to carrying New Mexico.”
• Minnesota and Wisconsin: “Should he pick Minnesota’s Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his vice presidential choice, he might have a leg up on carrying both Minnesota and Wisconsin, which went narrowly for Mr. Kerry in 2004.”
• Michigan and Oregon: “McCain can be competitive in other blue states. Michigan went Democratic in 2004 by only 3.4% of the total vote, and Oregon by just over 4%.”
• California: “The latest Field Poll in California puts Mr. McCain and Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie.”
• Connecticut: “Support from Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Democratic Party’s 2000 vice presidential candidate, could put Connecticut in contention.”
  • New Jersey: “Ditto New Jersey, which Mr. Bush lost by only 53% to 46% in 2004.”
• Pennsylvania: “Michael Smerconish, the most popular talk-show host in Philadelphia, believes Mr. McCain has a real chance to carry the state…. His independence and maverick status are exactly the qualities that could help him carry the tightly contested Philadelphia suburbs that voted to re-elect GOP senator Arlen Specter, a moderate, in 2004 but rejected conservative Rick Santorum in 2006.”

Why did Fund stop there? He could have added that McCain could hold Virginia because its military personnel, or Florida because of all of its retirees.

Looks like Fund’s angling for a repeat of 1972.

1972 Electoral Map (Red denotes Democratic; blue denotes Republican)

Super Tuesday Rundown: Northeastern and Midwestern States

Cross-posted at the Huffington Post.

And check out my rundown of Southern states here.

For the first time in modern American political history, there will be a nationwide primary on Tuesday, February 5. Many of 23 states that moved their primaries to earlier dates did so with the hopes of getting the kind of attention that the candidates and national media give to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Those states got their wish, and each of their proud traditions and strange customs will be cast on the national stage on Tuesday.

As part of a three installment series, here’s a look at two regions that will be contested on Super Tuesday – the Northeast and the Midwest – and how each candidate can expect to perform in each state.

Democrats in the Northeast (Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York)

One of the most inaccurate descriptions of Hillary Clinton’s relationship with New York is that it’s is her “home turf.” Hillary launched her Senate bid from New York in part because a seat was being vacated, but more importantly because New York has always cast itself as the center of the nation. It’s the Empire State, the Big Apple and the Capital of the World. And so the state fit for Clinton, who was already a national figure.

By most reports, she’s done a good job of cultivating constituent relationships and building a strong statewide organization. On Super Tuesday, she’ll probably run well with Democrats in Upstate cities, who have tasted the bacon that she has brought home. She’ll also rack up big margins in the suburban counties surrounding the City, which are full of rooted New Yorkers who see her as more of a senator from their state than a national figure with a New York base.

But New York City is a different story. The City is the blending of America and is so saturated with media that primary voters are less likely to be loyal to Hillary and more likely to be tuned in to the details and rhythms of the campaign as a whole. It also won’t hurt Barack Obama that the city is heavily African-American. Obama might be wise to hold a rally in Madison Square Garden. If he can pack the University of South Carolina stadium, surely he can electrify MSG. Look for Obama to rack up millions of votes in the City and take nearly 40 percent there on his way to claiming about a third of New York’s 232 delegates.

On the other end of the Lincoln Tunnel, New Jersey will probably break decisively to Hillary. This is the state of the Carmello Soprano voter: white, upper middle-class, suburban moms. This demographic group is the backbone of Mark Penn’s strategy. And don’t forget that Carm once praised Hillary, telling Rosalie Aprile, “She stood by him and put up with the bullshit, and in the end, what did she do? She set up her own little thing.” Hillary should also do well with Hispanics in the inner suburbs, if only for the reason that these inner towns are fiercely loyal to everything New York.

On the other side of New York’s orbit, Connecticut will be a closer race. In the 2006 Democratic primary for Connecticut’s U.S. Senate seat, a Starbucks v. Dunkin Donuts dynamic emerged. Supporters of incumbent Joe Lieberman tended to be blue collar Democrats from places like the Naugatuck Valley who drank Dunkin Donuts coffee. Challenger Ned Lamont drew from wealthier Democrats on the Gold Coast who commuted to Manhattan and sipped Starbucks. It’s a very similar breakdown from what happened between Hillary and Obama in New Hampshire, and is likely to repeat itself on Super Tuesday.

Up in Massachusetts, if voters aren’t too hung over from Super Bowl celebrations or depressions, depending on the outcome, Super Tuesday will be a very close battle. Polls have Clinton leading by double-digits, but Obama has the endorsements of the Bay State’s governor and two U.S. senators. The state is also packed to the gills with the kind of people who usually support Obama: white, educated liberals. Clinton will probably win, but expect Obama to do surprisingly well.

Republicans in the Northeast (Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York)

If Rudy Giuliani had ever faced Hillary in the 2000 Senate race, he probably would have lost the City. But make no mistake: the Big Apple is Rudy territory. This Brooklyn-born Italian-American rose through the ranks in the five boroughs to become the boss of the City and hero of local Republicans. If he had stayed in the 2008 presidential campaign, Rudy probably would have racked up huge margins on Staten Island and Long Island, and won most of Upstate.

John McCain might have picked off enough traditional Nelson Rockefeller Republicans to cut into Rudy’s margins in Westchester and surrounding burbs. But Rudy would have won the state and taken its 101 delegates in this winner take all contest. With Rudy out of the race, New York should be smooth sailing for McCain. Mitt Romney may have a decent shot Upstate if conservatives seek out an alternative, and a scenario is likely where Romney sweeps Upstate but McCain dominates everywhere south of the Catskills.

In New Jersey and Connecticut, McCain is likely to complete his sweep of the tri-state area. McCain was always positioned to do fairly well in these two states, which are home to the many suburban moderate Republicans like Rep. Chris Shays (CT-04). But these two states would have been competitive. Rudy would certainly have benefited from his high name recognition and moderate policies.

Many Republicans in the inner-burbs, especially in New Jersey, will always idolize America’s mayor for his handling of 9/11. There is nothing more iconic to many of these inner-suburban ethnic Republicans than Rudy throwing the first pitch at a Yankees game, wearing a FDNY hat with an American flag on the side. It’s not clear where these voters will go, but they’ll likely chose McCain, based solely on the fact that he’s a war hero.

Mitt Romney, for his part, will likely miss a huge opportunity in the tri-state region. Suburban Republicans in Summit County, N.J. and Fairfield County, Conn. once loved the idea of Romney: a CEO who promised results and success, had a stellar resume, looked good and talked authoritatively. But that’s all in past. As Romney became increasingly tangled in battles in the Heartland to prove his conservative purity, he stiffened up and took a defensive posture, which was off-settling for some people. He also advocated some positions that made many of his suburban supporters think twice.

Romney will likely concede the entire tri-state region and its 183 delegates and win Massachusetts’ 41 delegates without breaking a sweat. Any Republican primary voters in this region who wanted some visits from the candidates, maybe a little an appearance at a post-Super Bowl celebration in Boston in New York, will likely not get any. The Northeast will be radio silent. It’s a stunning fact considering there are three moderate Republicans who once lead the polls, two of which were from the region.

Midwest for Democrats (Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and North Dakota)

The Super Tuesday states in the region know as the “the Midwest” should really be divided into two different subsets. The first is the breadbasket states of Kansas, North Dakota and Minnesota. And the second group is Illinois and Missouri, which are distinctly Midwestern in the sense that they fall on the fault line between the Rust Belt and Dixie. Those two states are also home to the Cubs and Cardinals, and what is more Midwestern than a series between those two franchises?

Obama is a White Sox fan, which is heresy in many quarters of Illinois, but he’s still wildly popular with state Democrats and has a stronger bond with the base than Hillary does in New York. Obama will sweep the Chicago area, which accounts over half of the state’s Democratic primary voters, from the old Comiskey on the South Side to Wrigley on the North Side. But Chicago is also Hillary’s place of birth, and while it probably won’t count for much, she may find some voters in the suburbs and pull together 20 to 25 percent statewide.

It’ll also be interesting to see how Obama performs downstate, which Salon’s Edward McClelland has noted has a “history of working out racial questions for the rest of the country.” The region produced the two men most responsible for ending slavery in Abraham Lincoln and U. S. Grant. But one hundred years after the Civil War, racial strife tore apart the town of Cairo, and in 2004, Obama ran second in the Democratic primary downstate.

Across the mighty Mississippi from Cairo is Missouri, another state that has always been stuck between North and South. The northern part of the state was settled by Virginians and is known as Little Dixie. John Edwards might have found support here, but with the former North Carolina senator out of the race, Hillary has a distinct advantage. Obama will be buoyed by support in St. Louis and Kansas City, and he’ll do well with the Democrats and independents who listen to Sen. Claire McCaskill’s argument that he has purple-state appeal. An Obama victory is a long shot, but he could end up taking nearly half the state’s 72 delegates.

Minnesota will also award 72 delegates, but will do so in complicated caucus system that should favor Obama’s superior ground game. Obama’s style of campaigning will also probably play well in this state that is proud of its tradition of being “Minnesota nice” and often rewards candidates who run sunny campaigns. Edwards could have had an opening here, as Minnesota’s Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party has been known to be kind to populist candidates.

On Minnesota’s western border is the town of Fargo, N.D., where Democratic voters will also be caucusing. National Geographic recently described North Dakota as an “empty prairie… littered with dead towns.” With only13 delegates, it’s anybody’s guess who will win. Another state with few Democrats that appears to be up for grabs in Kansas. But with most leading Kansas Democrats endorsing Obama, the Illinois senator might have the upper hand. It also won’t hurt that is mom is from Kansas.

Republicans in the Midwest (Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri and North Dakota)

It’s unclear who is leading the contest for North Dakota’s 25 delegates in the Republican race. Romney won a straw poll, but the state is also home to many older and more mainline Republicans who may support McCain. Neighboring Minnesota and its 40 delegates will be the focus of much more time and attention. McCain is the heavy favorite in Minnesota and Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been singing his praises there from the very beginning.

But the state also has a very vocal and active pro-life community, and Mike Huckabee could do surprisingly well. It’ll be interesting to see how Romney stacks up against McCain in the suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul, which are the fastest-growing areas in the state and are home to many of the new Republicans who are changing the electorate of this once heavily Democratic state.

Romney has a better shot in Missouri, er, “Missour-ah” to use local GOP dialect. The state will live up to its reputation as a fierce battleground and many of the rifts in the state GOP that were apparent during the 2006 battle over a stem-cell ballot initiative will be exposed. Moderates such as former Sen. John Danforth, who is backing McCain, supported the initiative. But many conservatives staunchly opposed it. Former Sen. Jim Talent, who could never really articulate a clear position on the issue, is a Romney ally, as is the Blunt family. If the “Rally to Romney” movement takes hold in here, he could edge McCain and take Missouri’s 58 delegates in this winner take-all contest. A repeat of Florida, where Huckabee stripped Romney of significant conservatives support, could happen.

Romney also needs to have a strong showing in Illinois, which awards 70 delegates by district. McCain is the favorite here, but former Speaker Dennis Hastert is doing all he can to knock down the maverick senator whom he has derided as an “unreliable” vote for the GOP. McCain is likely to take Chicago and the burbs, but it’ll be interesting to see who wins downstate. The southern part of the state might as well be in Dixie, which is also hosting a slew of elections on Super Tuesday.