Tag Archives: Predictions

Ambinder’s Latest Electoral Map

Atlantic‘s Marc Ambinder posted his prediction for the general election map last Friday, and I drew up this map of it.  McCain’s base is deep red; tilt McCain is pink; toss-up is yellow; tilt Obama is light blue; and Obama’s base is deep blue.

I would make Missouri and Virginia tilt McCain and make Nevada a toss-up, but other than that I agree with everything.

Ambinder’s Electoral Map

Ambinder\'s Electoral Map

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Electoral Map Daily Compass

The Daily Compass is back!

  • ALASKA: Nate Silver lays out the argument for an Obama trip to Alaska [FiveThirtyEight.com]
  • GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage has Obama tied with McCain [Southern Political Report]
  • IOWA: McCain and Bush tour the Hawkeye State 60 miles apart [New York Times]
  • IOWA: SurveyUSA says Obama/Webb is the strongest Democratic ticket; McCain/Bloomberg is the best GOP one [Race 4 2008]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: The very real possibility that Obama wins the popular vote and looses the Electoral College [Politico]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: Obama‘s battleground states ad buy includes North Dakota, Montana, Alaska and Indiana but not New Jersey, Oregon and Washington [Politico‘s Ben Smith]
  • ELECTORAL MAP: The McCain camp is contesting 52 Democratic EV’s; the Obama team is going after 148 Republican EV’s [Cogitamus]

CQ Says Only Four States Would Swing

I’m a former National Journal Group writer, so I never give those turkeys at CQ too much credit, but their analysis of battleground states is worth a look:

“In 2004, Kerry won Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire for a total of 69 electoral votes. Bush won Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and New Mexico for 46 electoral votes.

“Looking now at polls of these same states, Obama leads McCain in Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa which have a total of 64 electoral votes. McCain leads in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire which have a total of 46 electoral votes. This time around, the latest poll shows New Mexico as a toss-up.”

In this made that I made, the lighter shades represent states that CQ predicts are likely to flip and the yellow means up for grabs.

CQPolitics.com’s Electoral Map

CQ\'s Electoral Map

Ben Smith Nabs Rove’s Latest Electoral Maps

Ben Smith got his hands on Karl Rove & Co.’s latest series of electoral map predictions. It looks like the maps have Colorado and New Mexico turning blue, Nebraska shifting back into the GOP column and Wisconsin going from red to a toss-up.  Other than that, not much has changed.

These maps are really just a snapshot of rolling averages of polls, so I don’t think we’d really be talking about them if they were branded with the word Rove.  Nonetheless, here’s the latest map and a link to the previous one.

Karl Rove & Co.’s Latest Electoral Map

The Prince of Darkness Releases His Electoral Map

Bob Novak released his prediction for the electoral map today, and it has John McCain squeaking by with  270 electoral votes to Barack Obama‘s 268.  He actually breaks down all 50 states — Here are some interesting tidbits about swing states:

  • Colorado: Novak puts it in the Democratic column and calls it “one of Obama’s best chances to win a Bush state.”
  • Florida: Pointing to Cuba, seniors and vets, Novak predicts that it could very well “fade off the radar screen” for Obama.
  • Indiana: Novak argues “McCain will have to work hard” to earn the Hoosier State’s 11 EV’s.
  • Michigan: “Both candidates are weak in Michigan,” says Novak.  But it’s still “McCain’s best chance” to win a blue state.

Other than those calls, Novak’s map looks fairly conventional and he notes that he doesn’t expect it to change much from 2004:

“The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama’s weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House.”

My question to Novak — Would it kill him to develop a color map?

Novak\'s Electoral Map